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火箭vs勇士_朱敏:各国仍然期待多边主义解决贸易争端

????世界经济论坛年会1月22日在瑞士达沃斯市正式开幕。来自各行各业的3000多名代表,包括中国客人,齐聚瑞士,讨论世界经济。清华大学国家金融研究所所长、国际货币基金组织(IMF)前副总裁、世界经济论坛董事会常务董事朱敏出席了多次对话和讲话。朱敏是世界经济论坛上中国最高级、最高级的官员。从与会者到发言者,从论坛董事会成员到常务董事,朱敏的履历也反映了中国在世界经济地位的提升。,2019年达沃斯论坛结束后,作家朱敏回顾了20多年来达沃斯的历史,环顾世界经济形势。朱敏认为,2019年世界经济的最大决定因素是不确定性。没有人预测2019年会发生危机,也没有人认为2019年会是平稳、高增长和高回报的。不确定性有很多来源。朱敏在这篇文章中作了简要的介绍和评论,使读者能够用几千个字快速了解世界经济形势。,本文来自微信公众号:原子智库,作者:清华大学国家金融学院院长、国际货币基金组织前副主席朱敏。这篇文章是原子智库的独家发布,原名为“在达沃斯聆听中国声音-达沃斯手册2019”。,朱民,今年达沃斯的气氛和去年完全不同。,达沃斯是瑞士的一个城镇,海拔1529米,人口12000人,位于瑞士东南部的格雷森地区,是阿尔卑斯山上最高的城镇。小镇坐落在一个长长的峡谷中,主要道路蜿蜒而整洁,两边有典型的瑞士商店,从巧克力到刀子,安静而安静,从咖啡到餐馆,干净而干净。冬天,商店里有雪山、陡峭的雪峰、绵延的雪坡和白云。每年1月的最后一周,来自世界各地的政治领导人、政府高级官员、商界精英、科学家、艺术家、学者、社会团体和媒体的3000多名代表齐聚雪山小镇达沃斯,出席世界经济论坛年会。,今年达沃斯的天气真是太好了。尽管气温总是在零下7度到18度之间,但这是罕见的一周,没有雪,甚至阴天,每天都有阳光。走在街上,吸着1500米高的新鲜空气,抬头望着两边白雪皑皑的山峰,弯腰听雪踩在脚下的声音,头上的阳光,真的充满了欢乐。,来自各行各业的代表来到沃斯,对未来的经济和金融趋势进行评估。达沃斯论坛的“气氛”是世界经济和金融新年的晴雨表。论坛350场讨论充满话题,人满为患,100多场早餐、午餐和晚餐会举行,讨论的热情忽视了精致的菜肴,更不用说数千场双边会议和会场小声交谈了。但今年会议上的讨论并不容易。经济增长放缓,中美摩擦、民粹主义盛行,政府不作为或短期行为,不确定性上升。与去年的乐观相比,今年的整体情绪不安。,今年,我听取了王岐山副总裁的主旨演讲,出席了施瓦布主席为王岐山副总裁举办的欢迎晚宴和王岐山副总裁与国际商界人士的圆桌讨论会。作为世界经济论坛董事会常务董事,他参加了世界经济论坛董事会会议、世界经济论坛国际商务理事会会议、世界经济论坛未来金融和货币体系指导委员会会议、非正式会议和世界经济领导人会议,中国金融业和贸易未来分论坛。组织主持国资委“中外企业之夜”、清华大学“一区一路达沃斯论坛”、“达沃斯中国之夜”等多项活动。,在此期间,我与论坛主席施瓦布单独共进早餐。双边会议与Bridge Water Fund创始人达里奥、纽约大学诺贝尔奖获得者斯宾塞教授、伦敦经济学院教授斯特恩和以色列创新之父沃尔迪举行。接受中央电视台、中国新闻社、中央电视台、中国广播公司等媒体采访。,我参加了达沃斯论坛20多年。从听众开始到演讲,我成为论坛董事会的一名董事,也是董事会五个执行委员会的成员。每次我参加会议,我总是学到很多东西,我总是对我想写的东西感到兴奋。但是二十多年来,我一直忙于我的生意,每次我匆匆忙忙地来来去,都没有时间开始写作。在今年的会议结束时,周五晚上,达沃斯突然被鹅毛大雪覆盖,再次将达沃斯埋在白雪中。早上,我看着窗外覆盖着雪的宁静小镇。一夜之间,似乎过去一周的会议还没有在达沃斯举行,我神志不清。当飞机冲破云层爬上1万米的时候,阳光从窗户洒进机舱,一周的激烈辩论在脑海中回响,会议真的有了一种新的感觉。我打开餐桌,打开电脑,开始写我20多年来第一本达沃斯手册。,今年的达沃斯会议与前一次大不相同。尤其是,它改变了2018年的乐观情绪,普遍感到焦虑和不安。这不是悲观,只是不安。一切都在改变。不确定性无处不在。2019年似乎怀着某种东西,但目前还不清楚。在我离开之前,我收到了一张新年贺卡,是我的朋友,布里奇水务基金的创始人和总裁雷·达里奥寄来的。这封信以他精力充沛的笔迹开头:“比一切都重要的是,我今年唯一的希望是地球上的和平。”愿改变的力量与你同在。似乎有隐喻。在达沃斯的官方活动之间,我挤出时间参加各种分论坛,听演讲,参与讨论,会见许多代表,感受达沃斯的“心情/氛围”。,我对2019年达沃斯世界关注热点问题的看法如下:,达沃斯在过去20年里从未如此焦虑过,除了2009年,20年来我从未见过达沃斯如此焦虑和不安。达沃斯的总体“情绪/氛围”是焦虑和焦虑。不是悲观,而是不安。没有人预测2019年会有危机,但没有人认为2019年会是平稳、高增长、高回报的。似乎在一瞬间,所有以前的架构都发生了变化。会议期间的分论坛,如早餐、咖啡、午餐、下午茶、咖啡会、晚宴、咖啡交流和激烈辩论,都是对新一年世界经济和金融发展方向的怀疑;所有关于民粹主义蔓延的争议;所有对气候变化的恐惧;所有对社会和道德的挑战都是技术变化引起的诉讼;以及对全球治理机制的所有挑战。瘫痪问题是中美之间是否会爆发全面争端的激烈争论。全球化和反全球化需要站在一条线上吗?到处都有差异。,全球经济和金融趋势仍然是一个主要问题。全球经济增长是否会放缓并陷入衰退?美国10年期国债和2年期国债的利率差为零。在过去,这是经济衰退早期阶段的一个指标。这次怎么样?经过20%的调整后,美国股市会下跌吗?在经济放缓后,美联储会从稳健的利率转向降息吗?降息对市场的影响?,政治关注主要是美国国内的政治变化。在新的一年里赢得众议院的支持后,国内民主党人将如何与共和党人竞争?特朗普的支持率在下降,他的农民收入在2018年急剧下降,债务在急剧上升,特朗普的支持率是有史以来最低的,会下降吗?国会会弹劾特朗普吗?这一切会在美国的外交政策中产生什么样的“冲击”?,时间到了,美国政府能在2月份开门吗?我们能在三月份就中美贸易达成协议吗?三月份英国脱离了欧洲?意大利银行/5月份金融风险爆发?美国6月第二季度的经济增长和就业能否稳定下来?10月,当美国债务上限再次出现时,全球金融稳定受到威胁。,尽管有许多争议,当达沃斯代表离开这个白雪皑皑的小镇时,有一件事在他们的头脑中是确定的:2019年唯一确定的是不确定性,而且不确定性正在增加。,二。世界经济发展将继续放缓,2019年全球经济增长放缓,2020年将继续放缓。从宏观上看,2008年全球金融危机以来,由于危机的破坏,过去10年全球平均经济增长率低于危机前10年的平均水平,属于中速复苏。2018年全球经济增长3.7%,是2008年金融危机后的最高点。2019年后,美国、欧洲和日本经济周期性下滑,贸易放缓大于经济放缓。作为一名经济学家,我关注宏观数据,但达沃斯有许多世界500强企业,我经常听取他们对行业的微观判断。他们的判断往往与宏观数据不一致,但今年与宏观数据高度一致。美国企业家对2019年的微观水平并不乐观,特别是在制造业、汽车业、化工、矿产资源、建筑业、石油业、住房和其他行业。他们认为特朗普的财政和税收改革的影响正在减弱。特朗普声称,在增加基础设施投资、减少所有部门的监管以及开放石油出口方面进展缓慢。,世界各地的其他企业家比美国企业家更悲观,他们担心特朗普的政策。关注贸易战争和汇率波动,关注传统国际秩序的变化和新国际秩序的不确定性。世界各地的商人都担心特朗普贸易战会影响和改变全球产业链的格局,因此他们不敢进行任何中期投资或更多。2018年,全球FDI从2017年的147万亿美元下降到1.2万亿美元,降幅达18%,这一点显而易见。出于同样的原因,企业家们说他们对2019年的投资更加谨慎。,全球经济衰退已经引起了金融市场参与者的关注和困惑。Bridge Water Fund的创始人雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)预测,随着美国和欧洲经济继续放缓,未来的货币政策将不得不放松。目前,中央银行的政策空间有限,民粹主义的兴起,政治和社会冲突,中央银行在这种情况下很难应对另一场经济衰退。他认为,美联储的加息政策可能会从提高利率转变为降低利率,这在达沃斯引发了千波浪潮。这样,全球金融市场仍处于低利率、低通胀、流动性广的状态,金融市场将继续波动,全球投资者将面临重估的挑战。,自金融危机以来的十年里,全球公司债券增加了约29万亿美元。新兴经济体的公司债券增长率远高于发达经济体,这是全球金融的潜在风险。美林证券(Merrill Lynch Securities)董事总经理方凯伦(Karen Fang)和智利财政部长巴斯村(Felipe Larran Bascun)认为,如果美联储不提高利率,就有调整的余地。在低利率环境下,杠杆率不是很高。与债务泡沫不同,他们认为市场可以容忍暂时的资产和债务错配以及纠正错配,因此债务泡沫破裂的极端情况不太可能发生。国际货币基金组织(IMF)副总裁大卫A.利普顿(David A.Lipton)强调,必须有一条底线,重点关注负债企业的盈利能力、利率上升和美元波动对宏观经济的影响、考虑如何防范可能出现的债务风险以及财政和货币政策应对衰退的空间有多大。锡安。我观察到,2019年,市场需要关注利率、汇率、经济增长下降、中美贸易摩擦以及地缘政治不确定性的影响。,特朗普政策是2019年的主要风险点。,达沃斯几乎同意地缘政治不确定性,尤其是特朗普政策不确定性,是2019年的主要风险。世界经济论坛全球风险和地缘政治议程负责人安古斯·柯林斯报告称,2019年风险预期问卷调查的三个特点之一是地缘政治问题连续三年成为关注焦点。全球地缘政治风险不断上升,民粹主义持续发酵,发达国家的政府普遍不活跃或短期行为,企业家普遍抱怨商业环境恶化。,特朗普经济政策的不确定性在于税收改革的财政刺激已经结束,新政策还不明确。对第二个财政赤字的压力已经显现,美国在2019年的财政赤字为1万亿美元,持续的贸易赤字约为3%。双重赤字对美元利率的影响仍有待观察,但在2019年10月,特朗普面临国会批准提高美国债务上限的问题,我听说代表们担心这可能是今年世界面临的一个主要风险。,在政治上,特朗普是那个时期所有总统中最低的一位,他陷入了各种随时可能加剧的矛盾之中。特朗普与国会之间的矛盾正在逐步展开和激化。民主党已经占据了众议院的多数席位,国会将加强对特朗普的制衡。代表们特别关注美国国内政治的恶化,包括共和党和民主党之间矛盾的加剧、特朗普的深入调查、收入分配的持续恶化以及新的税收政策。代表们还担心美国国内政治恶化的国际影响。特朗普对朝鲜、墨西哥、伊朗、中国指导条约和世贸组织的政策是可变的。,特朗普的思维逻辑是企业管理和企业管理。他的行动风格是高调的威胁、恐吓、反叛,不按惯例打牌,挑战对手的底线。事实上,他心里知道他的目的是明确的,他的工作作风是迅速和暴力的。当对手认为他会妥协时,他的目标就实现了。因为他夺取了美国的霸权并采取了暴力行动,所以经常奏效。政府的关闭充分体现了特朗普的坚强作风和自我中心精神。我的观察是,这是一个非常不愉快的不确定性在商界。,四、世界仍期待多边主义解决争端。,中美之间的贸易摩擦占据了会议的所有议题。代表们普遍希望中美能在3月达成贸易协定,但商务代表们担心中美可能难以在3月初达成协议,或达成短期协议,长期摩擦仍在继续。,美国挑起中美贸易摩擦,改变了全球贸易环境,引发了全球贸易体制改革与发展的讨论。欧盟贸易专员CeciliaMalmstrm认为,全球贸易体系有两种趋势。消极方面,存在贸易保护和贸易争端等威胁,一些国家忽视了全球贸易规则。在积极方面,许多国家认为,全球贸易有许多好处,许多双边贸易协定已经达成。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)首席执行官克里斯汀?西林(Christian Selling)指出,全球贸易形势的最大影响是动摇人们的信心。多边或双边贸易协定的缔结对于重建市场信心至关重要。世界贸易组织(WTO)总干事罗伯特·阿泽夫多认为,停滞的多边体系是不可行的,必须不断改进和发展以适应不断变化的世界。他指出,改变现状的方法不是祈祷,而是参与解决方案的讨论。,世界仍然期待多边主义解决贸易争端。在我参加的一个全球贸易分论坛开始时,100%的观众投票认为多边主义仍然是一种可行的全球贸易方式;43%的观众认为全球贸易的趋势是加强多边和双边合作;26%的观众认为合作会减少;21%的观众认为合作会减少。只有双边合作才能得到加强,其余10%的人认为合作会得到加强。约简将是一个零和游戏。,五、英国退出欧洲是主要风险点,代表们普遍对英国退出欧洲持悲观态度。理性主义者希望英国和欧洲继续谈判,找到妥协的余地,但实际上,英国议会和欧洲议会都表明,没有妥协的余地。只剩下一个政治决定,另一个公民投票或大选。在过去的两年里,达沃斯的总体“气氛/气氛”是英国和欧洲成功达成的脱离欧洲的谈判协议。今年风向变化很大。人们普遍认为,无论是重新公投还是大选,或是“硬中断”、“软中断”或“不中断”。今天,英国社会已经分裂,并将导致社会、经济、政治和外交的分裂。进一步的不稳定也将引发伦敦金融市场和欧洲的动荡。英国退出欧洲是2019年另一个重要的全球风险和触发点。,英国离开欧洲也对欧盟产生了巨大影响。鉴于目前英国与欧洲的分离、欧洲的东西分界线、南北分界线等问题,欧盟面临的更大挑战是如何界定和维护欧盟的身份。但很明显,多元化的欧盟国家有自己的标准。在讨论“新欧洲动态”时,荷兰总理马克·鲁特(Mark Rutte)提出,要保持年轻人作为欧洲人的身份,就需要繁荣、共同和集体的安全和价值。他认为,保持成员国之间的公平非常重要,欧洲国家应分担难民问题,以缓解东西方的分歧,欧洲委员会应限制意大利和法国的预算,以缓解南北分歧。此外,他还指出,欧洲需要一个统一的服务和电子商务内部市场。,爱尔兰总理瓦拉德卡尔(Leo Varadkar)和欧洲贸易委员会(European Trade Commission)成员塞西莉亚?马尔姆斯特姆(Cecilia Malmstrm)认为,团结是必要的,复杂的全球问题需要欧洲共同解决。波兰总理莫拉威基提议承认欧洲的多元主义,并赋予公众权力。爱尔兰总理瓦拉德卡尔建议,欧盟的政治影响力应该进一步扩大,以便在内部和外部获得对欧盟的信任。波兰总理莫拉威基认为,欧盟应该学会倾听人民的意见,同时保持成员国之间的公平竞争。荷兰总理马克·鲁特(MarkRutte)继续强调承诺并坚持执行这些规则。关于如何避免与处理难民问题类似的不团结,波兰总理马图斯·莫拉威基(Mateusz Morawiecki)认为,税收应该更公平,例如消除避税港,欧盟应该确保成员国遵守相同的标准。桑坦德银行董事会执行主席安娜·博丁(Ana Botin)提议,按照实用主义,加强机构的作用,加快服务业和银行业联盟的整合,确保类似金融机构的税收公平。,我清楚地感觉到英国在脱离欧洲方面面临着困难。在欧盟脱离欧洲的影响下,欧盟的认同和前景还有一段较长的路要走。,6。全球化时代4.0应该更加包容,在全球化4.0时代,多边合作仍然是解决全球化问题的可行途径。在“塑造全球化4.0”分论坛上,与会者的讨论集中在“如何团结世界力量,建设更具包容性和可持续发展的全球建筑”问题上。挑战仍然很多。,国际货币基金组织首席经济学家吉塔?戈皮纳特从贸易失衡的角度探讨了全球化的变化特征。她强调全球化带来了许多好处。从国际贸易的角度看,全球化提高了人们的生活水平和生产效率等,但全球化是一把双刃剑。即使我们创造了最完善的制度和秩序,也有人会失败,所以国内的补充政策尤为重要。,美国微软公司(Microsoft Corporation)首席执行官纳德拉(Satya Nadella)指出,全球化正面临着经济增长停滞和难以实现公平分配的双重挑战。如何构建下一个全球化结构,实现更好的公平增长愿景?合理利用全球化带来的技术增长、资源创新等发展机遇,改变思维方式,促进全球化本土化,满足各国的实际发展需要。随着新技术的发展,全球化正在深化。我们需要更加关注数字安全、网络安全和未来工作技能的未知挑战。,日本城市可持续发展公司RDND的联合创始人兼传播总监Akira Sakano指出,为了应对“全球化4.0”带来的难民安置、粮食问题、民主化和人口老龄化等诸多挑战,有必要让世界各地的相关方参与进来。保持社会和国家凝聚力在榜首,通过协作促进全球化实现共同目标。进入下一个公平增长水平。,标普集团总裁道格拉斯·彼得森指出,价值链的重要影响之一是促进科学技术的发展,使地方中小企业有机会参与全球贸易,成为价值链的一部分。随着价值链的大发展,伴随着技术的快速发展(包装运输标准化等)。未来供应链的发展将逐步成为模块化,在3D打印和人工智能技术的推动下,将更加全球化或本地化。因此,地缘经济(包括税率、政府关系等)逐渐成为影响地缘经济发展的重要因素之一。基础设施是供应链升级的基础,基础设施设备是当前制约全球发展速度的原因之一。,印度SCA集团董事Bharavi Jani认为,孵化器和加速器等机构利用资本使小型科技公司在全球革命中发挥重要作用,促进价值链的发展。价值链的形式逐渐多样化,价值终点不再固定。流动性取决于公司的投资方向,并将在国际贸易中继续变化和转移。Jani主要关注的是如何提高人们的学习技能的效率,以及价值链是否完全依赖于技术手段。,德国总理默克尔的讲话指出,全球化面临着许多挑战和风险。十年前,金融危机的负面影响依然存在。现有国际金融体系的不稳定和国际保护主义的兴起,使人们对经济增长的信心下降。为了消除贫困,维持世界经济发展,国际组织和国际体系需要正视问题,加快改革步伐。面对新兴经济体日益增长的合作需求,各国不应局限于本国利益,而应求同存异,创造双赢局面。在此基础上,默克尔总理进一步强调多边主义的必要性,并强调世界各国必须摒弃旧的思维方式,以促进全球化的合理框架。,兰德公司的高级政治学者迈克尔·J·马扎尔总结了国际秩序发展的三个阶段,给我留下了深刻的印象。从国际秩序和全球化的历史来看,我们现在处于一个新的秩序之中。国际秩序能否继续发展,取决于我们是否有新的基本思想、技术进步或更明智的政策。不够。,尽管全球化和反全球化的争论不断,与会者认为全球化提高了人们的生活水平和生产效率,但有些人不可避免地会受到全球化的影响。因此,应制定适当的国内补充和支持政策。建议各方通过合作实现共同目标。各国不应局限于自身利益,而应求同存异,创造双赢局面。多边主义在这个过程中是必不可少的。推动全球化的合理框架要求世界各国摒弃旧的思维方式。全球化可以取得双赢的结果,但多边体系必须不断完善和发展,以适应不断变化的世界。,世界经济论坛创始人兼执行主席克劳斯·施瓦布提出了一个重要的观点。在欢迎辞中,他指出了全球化与全球化的区别。全球化已经成为现实,并将继续向前发展。如今,地球没有边界,每个人都是地球村的一部分,所有人都是相互联系的,这种联系将继续增加。全球化是一个哲学概念。世界经济论坛不支持没有任何限制的全球化。全球化4.0应该更加以人为本。同时,他强调全球化4.0应该更具包容性和可持续性。,可持续发展与企业社会责任,以人为本的可持续发展仍然是人们关注的焦点。在全球化和反全球化的对抗中,联合国三年前制定的全球可持续发展战略目标似乎已被遗忘。在达沃斯的讨论中,非洲和发展中国家再次强调如何实现可持续发展目标,从文件到执行。据估计,实现可持续发展战略目标的资金缺口约为每年2.5万亿美元。如何筹集资金?论坛与会者讨论了公共机构和私营部门如何共同努力实现这一目标。卢旺达总统保罗·卡加梅分享了卢旺达在可持续发展方面的成功经验,强调了公私部门共同努力、国内税收征收和通过可持续发展目标的重要性。卢旺达的增长率多年来一直保持在7-8%。国际货币基金组织主席拉加德对未来发展的预测证实了增加国内资源调动的必要性,最重要的是有效支出。同时,国内资源调动不能满足实现可持续发展目标所需的资金数额。私营部门的商业必须是解决方案的一部分。低收入国家需要通过可持续发展目标并将其转化为行动,而不是将资金用于新的战略计划。,致力于社会责任和企业利益的One、RockCreek和TPG Growth的创始人和高管表示,私营部门有巨大的能力促进发展成功,并有明确的可持续发展目标,但很难转化为真正的投资。挑战在于找到能够真正协调公私伙伴关系发展的解决方案,以及如何衡量和找到良好的投资。上升基金表示,没有大规模的公私合作。,在可持续发展的框架下,国内生产总值不足以衡量一个国家的进步。为了更好地衡量经济和社会进步,还应考虑人力资本、福祉、创新等指标。麻省理工学院斯隆商学院(Sloan Business School)数字经济项目主管埃里克?布林约夫森(Erik Brynjofsson)指出,GDP和福利是两个不同的概念。国内生产总值可以衡量生产力和其他指标,但不能衡量一切。他认为我们应该采用更好的测量方法。在21世纪,我们需要以利益为基础的指标,而不是生产性指标。伦敦大学学院创新与公共研究所的创始人玛丽安娜·马祖卡托指出了巨大GDP数字背后的危险。英国的经济增长是由消费驱动的,而消费是由债务驱动的,这将构成经济危机的风险。她认为GDP只计算价格,而忽略了社会价值。新西兰总理雅辛达·阿登(JacindaArdern)也同意扩大GDP计量。以最近的国际贸易争端和英国脱离欧洲为例,她指出,政策并不能在政治层面提供短期解决方案,而只关注国家经济层面与人民脱节,人民福祉必须成为政策的核心。,阿拉伯联合酋长国幸福和福利部部长奥胡尼·宾特·哈尔凡·鲁米(Ohuny Bint Khalfan al-Roumi)举了一个例子,指出卫生保健数据忽视了人类经验,政策制定需要对成本、效益和效益进行全面分析。巴黎经济合作与发展组织(Paris Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)秘书长古拉(Angel Gurra)指出,一方面,当GDP达到一定水平时,人们开始追求更高的生活质量。另一方面,一些人寻求社会进步,以解决诸如移民、贫富差距和难民等社会不平等问题。对于决策者来说,需要一套可比较的指标,通过这些指标可以找到更好的政策措施。,会议还讨论了对脆弱经济体的关切,并分享了国家和集团援助工作的成果。国际救援委员会主席大卫米利班德对目前的形势表示关切。在接下来的几年里,不确定的环境已经引起了人们对脆弱国家长期投资的怀疑。其中,一个缺乏政治制度的国家的权力可能会逐渐让位给国家政治和宗教,这最终将导致一个比冷战和第二次世界大战更脆弱和脆弱的国际政治制度。国际红十字会主席彼得·莫雷尔与大卫达成共识,并与他分享了红十字会在支持脆弱地区发展方面面临的问题:(1)最初用于长期项目的资金经常用于短期目的;(2)人们的需要与援助能力之间的差距逐渐加大。(3)公众对“脆弱性”的定义存在误解,这些国家和地区往往能自救。帮助只是缺乏必要的支持。在未来,彼得将重点关注如何更好地整合个人资源,以及如何结合工具和技能来提高援助的有效性。,伊拉克绿色建筑咨询公司(Iraqi Green Building Consulting Corporation)创始人巴西玛?阿卜杜勒拉赫曼(basima Abdullahman)认为,全球范围内需要消除短视现象,并在加强人民赋权和社会平等、促进公平的同时发展和赋予人们更多的社会机会的基础上开展工作。肯尼亚卡库玛难民营区域主席穆罕默德·哈桑·穆罕默德呼吁世界人民对非洲难民给予更多的理解和关注,并提供更多的教育和就业机会,以实现教人钓鱼。,尽管全球经济、金融和地缘政治面临挑战,但本次会议认为气候变化是世界面临的最重要、最紧迫和最严重的挑战。世界经济论坛全球风险和地缘政治议程负责人安古斯·柯林斯报告称,2019年风险预期问卷调查的一个特点是风险关注从经济问题转向环境问题。,本文来自微信公众号:原子智库。作者是清华大学国家金融学院院长、国际货币基金组织前副主席、原子能智库学术成员朱敏。

shi jie jing ji lun tan nian hui 1 yue 22 ri zai rui shi da wo si shi zheng shi kai mu. lai zi ge hang ge ye de 3000 duo ming dai biao, bao kuo zhong guo ke ren, qi ju rui shi, tao lun shi jie jing ji. qing hua da xue guo jia jin rong yan jiu suo suo zhang guo ji huo bi ji jin zu zhi IMF qian fu zong cai shi jie jing ji lun tan dong shi hui chang wu dong shi zhu min chu xi le duo ci dui hua he jiang hua. zhu min shi shi jie jing ji lun tan shang zhong guo zui gao ji zui gao ji de guan yuan. cong yu hui zhe dao fa yan zhe, cong lun tan dong shi hui cheng yuan dao chang wu dong shi, zhu min de lv li ye fan ying le zhong guo zai shi jie jing ji di wei de ti sheng., 2019 nian da wo si lun tan jie shu hou, zuo jia zhu min hui gu le 20 duo nian lai da wo si de li shi, huan gu shi jie jing ji xing shi. zhu min ren wei, 2019 nian shi jie jing ji de zui da jue ding yin su shi bu que ding xing. mei you ren yu ce 2019 nian hui fa sheng wei ji, ye mei you ren ren wei 2019 nian hui shi ping wen gao zeng zhang he gao hui bao de. bu que ding xing you hen duo lai yuan. zhu min zai zhe pian wen zhang zhong zuo le jian yao de jie shao he ping lun, shi du zhe neng gou yong ji qian ge zi kuai su liao jie shi jie jing ji xing shi., ben wen lai zi wei xin gong zhong hao: yuan zi zhi ku, zuo zhe: qing hua da xue guo jia jin rong xue yuan yuan chang guo ji huo bi ji jin zu zhi qian fu zhu xi zhu min. zhe pian wen zhang shi yuan zi zhi ku de du jia fa bu, yuan ming wei" zai da wo si ling ting zhong guo sheng yin da wo si shou ce 2019"., zhu min, jin nian da wo si de qi fen he qu nian wan quan bu tong., da wo si shi rui shi de yi ge cheng zhen, hai ba 1529 mi, ren kou 12000 ren, wei yu rui shi dong nan bu de ge lei sen di qu, shi a er bei si shan shang zui gao de cheng zhen. xiao zhen zuo luo zai yi ge chang chang de xia gu zhong, zhu yao dao lu wan yan er zheng jie, liang bian you dian xing de rui shi shang dian, cong qiao ke li dao dao zi, an jing er an jing, cong ka fei dao can guan, gan jing er gan jing. dong tian, shang dian li you xue shan dou qiao de xue feng mian yan de xue po he bai yun. mei nian 1 yue de zui hou yi zhou, lai zi shi jie ge di de zheng zhi ling dao ren zheng fu gao ji guan yuan shang jie jing ying ke xue jia yi shu jia xue zhe she hui tuan ti he mei ti de 3000 duo ming dai biao qi ju xue shan xiao zhen da wo si, chu xi shi jie jing ji lun tan nian hui., jin nian da wo si de tian qi zhen shi tai hao le. jin guan qi wen zong shi zai ling xia 7 du dao 18 du zhi jian, dan zhe shi han jian de yi zhou, mei you xue, shen zhi yin tian, mei tian du you yang guang. zou zai jie shang, xi zhuo 1500 mi gao de xin xian kong qi, tai tou wang zhe liang bian bai xue ai ai de shan feng, wan yao ting xue cai zai jiao xia de sheng yin, tou shang de yang guang, zhen de chong man le huan le., lai zi ge hang ge ye de dai biao lai dao wo si, dui wei lai de jing ji he jin rong qu shi jin xing ping gu. da wo si lun tan de" qi fen" shi shi jie jing ji he jin rong xin nian de qing yu biao. lun tan 350 chang tao lun chong man hua ti, ren man wei huan, 100 duo chang zao can wu can he wan can hui ju xing, tao lun de re qing hu shi le jing zhi de cai yao, geng bu yong shuo shu qian chang shuang bian hui yi he hui chang xiao sheng jiao tan le. dan jin nian hui yi shang de tao lun bing bu rong yi. jing ji zeng zhang fang huan, zhong mei mo ca min cui zhu yi sheng xing, zheng fu bu zuo wei huo duan qi xing wei, bu que ding xing shang sheng. yu qu nian de le guan xiang bi, jin nian de zheng ti qing xu bu an., jin nian, wo ting qu le wang qi shan fu zong cai de zhu zhi yan jiang, chu xi le shi wa bu zhu xi wei wang qi shan fu zong cai ju ban de huan ying wan yan he wang qi shan fu zong cai yu guo ji shang jie ren shi de yuan zhuo tao lun hui. zuo wei shi jie jing ji lun tan dong shi hui chang wu dong shi, ta can jia le shi jie jing ji lun tan dong shi hui hui yi shi jie jing ji lun tan guo ji shang wu li shi hui hui yi shi jie jing ji lun tan wei lai jin rong he huo bi ti xi zhi dao wei yuan hui hui yi fei zheng shi hui yi he shi jie jing ji ling dao ren hui yi, zhong guo jin rong ye he mao yi wei lai fen lun tan. zu zhi zhu chi guo zi wei" zhong wai qi ye zhi ye" qing hua da xue" yi qu yi lu da wo si lun tan"" da wo si zhong guo zhi ye" deng duo xiang huo dong., zai ci qi jian, wo yu lun tan zhu xi shi wa bu dan du gong jin zao can. shuang bian hui yi yu Bridge Water Fund chuang shi ren da li ao niu yue da xue nuo bei er jiang huo de zhe si bin se jiao shou lun dun jing ji xue yuan jiao shou si te en he yi se lie chuang xin zhi fu wo er di ju xing. jie shou zhong yang dian shi tai zhong guo xin wen she zhong yang dian shi tai zhong guo guang bo gong si deng mei ti cai fang., wo can jia le da wo si lun tan 20 duo nian. cong ting zhong kai shi dao yan jiang, wo cheng wei lun tan dong shi hui de yi ming dong shi, ye shi dong shi hui wu ge zhi xing wei yuan hui de cheng yuan. mei ci wo can jia hui yi, wo zong shi xue dao hen duo dong xi, wo zong shi dui wo xiang xie de dong xi gan dao xing fen. dan shi er shi duo nian lai, wo yi zhi mang yu wo de sheng yi, mei ci wo cong cong mang mang di lai lai qu, dou mei you shi jian kai shi xie zuo. zai jin nian de hui yi jie shu shi, zhou wu wan shang, da wo si tu ran bei e mao da xue fu gai, zai ci jiang da wo si mai zai bai xue zhong. zao shang, wo kan zhe chuang wai fu gai zhe xue de ning jing xiao zhen. yi ye zhi jian, si hu guo qu yi zhou de hui yi hai mei you zai da wo si ju xing, wo shen zhi bu qing. dang fei ji chong po yun ceng pa shang 1 wan mi de shi hou, yang guang cong chuang hu sa jin ji cang, yi zhou de ji lie bian lun zai nao hai zhong hui xiang, hui yi zhen de you le yi zhong xin de gan jue. wo da kai can zhuo, da kai dian nao, kai shi xie wo 20 duo nian lai di yi ben da wo si shou ce., jin nian de da wo si hui yi yu qian yi ci da bu xiang tong. you qi shi, ta gai bian le 2018 nian de le guan qing xu, pu bian gan dao jiao lv he bu an. zhe bu shi bei guan, zhi shi bu an. yi qie dou zai gai bian. bu que ding xing wu chu bu zai. 2019 nian si hu huai zhe mou zhong dong xi, dan mu qian hai bu qing chu. zai wo li kai zhi qian, wo shou dao le yi zhang xin nian he ka, shi wo de peng you, bu li qi shui wu ji jin de chuang shi ren he zong cai lei da li ao ji lai de. zhe feng xin yi ta jing li chong pei de bi ji kai tou:" bi yi qie dou zhong yao de shi, wo jin nian wei yi de xi wang shi di qiu shang de he ping." yuan gai bian de li liang yu ni tong zai. si hu you yin yu. zai da wo si de guan fang huo dong zhi jian, wo ji chu shi jian can jia ge zhong fen lun tan, ting yan jiang, can yu tao lun, hui jian xu duo dai biao, gan shou da wo si de" xin qing fen wei"., wo dui 2019 nian da wo si shi jie guan zhu re dian wen ti de kan fa ru xia:, da wo si zai guo qu 20 nian li cong wei ru ci jiao lv guo, chu le 2009 nian, 20 nian lai wo cong wei jian guo da wo si ru ci jiao lv he bu an. da wo si de zong ti" qing xu fen wei" shi jiao lv he jiao lv. bu shi bei guan, er shi bu an. mei you ren yu ce 2019 nian hui you wei ji, dan mei you ren ren wei 2019 nian hui shi ping wen gao zeng zhang gao hui bao de. si hu zai yi shun jian, suo you yi qian de jia gou dou fa sheng le bian hua. hui yi qi jian de fen lun tan, ru zao can ka fei wu can xia wu cha ka fei hui wan yan ka fei jiao liu he ji lie bian lun, dou shi dui xin yi nian shi jie jing ji he jin rong fa zhan fang xiang de huai yi suo you guan yu min cui zhu yi man yan de zheng yi suo you dui qi hou bian hua de kong ju suo you dui she hui he dao de de tiao zhan dou shi ji shu bian hua yin qi de su song yi ji dui quan qiu zhi li ji zhi de suo you tiao zhan. tan huan wen ti shi zhong mei zhi jian shi fou hui bao fa quan mian zheng duan di ji lie zheng lun. quan qiu hua he fan quan qiu hua xu yao zhan zai yi tiao xian shang ma? dao chu dou you cha yi., quan qiu jing ji he jin rong qu shi reng ran shi yi ge zhu yao wen ti. quan qiu jing ji zeng zhang shi fou hui fang huan bing xian ru shuai tui? mei guo 10 nian qi guo zhai he 2 nian qi guo zhai de li lv cha wei ling. zai guo qu, zhe shi jing ji shuai tui zao qi jie duan de yi ge zhi biao. zhe ci zen me yang? jing guo 20 de tiao zheng hou, mei guo gu shi hui xia die ma? zai jing ji fang huan hou, mei lian chu hui cong wen jian de li lv zhuan xiang jiang xi ma? jiang xi dui shi chang de ying xiang?, zheng zhi guan zhu zhu yao shi mei guo guo nei de zheng zhi bian hua. zai xin de yi nian li ying de zhong yi yuan de zhi chi hou, guo nei min zhu dang ren jiang ru he yu gong he dang ren jing zheng? te lang pu de zhi chi lv zai xia jiang, ta de nong min shou ru zai 2018 nian ji ju xia jiang, zhai wu zai ji ju shang sheng, te lang pu de zhi chi lv shi you shi yi lai zui di de, hui xia jiang ma? guo hui hui tan he te lang pu ma? zhe yi qie hui zai mei guo de wai jiao zheng ce zhong chan sheng shen me yang de" chong ji"?, shi jian dao le, mei guo zheng fu neng zai 2 yue fen kai men ma? wo men neng zai san yue fen jiu zhong mei mao yi da cheng xie yi ma? san yue fen ying guo tuo li le ou zhou? yi da li yin hang 5 yue fen jin rong feng xian bao fa? mei guo 6 yue di er ji du de jing ji zeng zhang he jiu ye neng fou wen ding xia lai? 10 yue, dang mei guo zhai wu shang xian zai ci chu xian shi, quan qiu jin rong wen ding shou dao wei xie., jin guan you xu duo zheng yi, dang da wo si dai biao li kai zhe ge bai xue ai ai de xiao zhen shi, you yi jian shi zai ta men de tou nao zhong shi que ding de: 2019 nian wei yi que ding de shi bu que ding xing, er qie bu que ding xing zheng zai zeng jia., er. shi jie jing ji fa zhan jiang ji xu fang huan, 2019 nian quan qiu jing ji zeng zhang fang huan, 2020 nian jiang ji xu fang huan. cong hong guan shang kan, 2008 nian quan qiu jin rong wei ji yi lai, you yu wei ji de po huai, guo qu 10 nian quan qiu ping jun jing ji zeng zhang lv di yu wei ji qian 10 nian de ping jun shui ping, shu yu zhong su fu su. 2018 nian quan qiu jing ji zeng zhang 3. 7, shi 2008 nian jin rong wei ji hou de zui gao dian. 2019 nian hou, mei guo ou zhou he ri ben jing ji zhou qi xing xia hua, mao yi fang huan da yu jing ji fang huan. zuo wei yi ming jing ji xue jia, wo guan zhu hong guan shu ju, dan da wo si you xu duo shi jie 500 qiang qi ye, wo jing chang ting qu ta men dui hang ye de wei guan pan duan. ta men de pan duan wang wang yu hong guan shu ju bu yi zhi, dan jin nian yu hong guan shu ju gao du yi zhi. mei guo qi ye jia dui 2019 nian de wei guan shui ping bing bu le guan, te bie shi zai zhi zao ye qi che ye hua gong kuang chan zi yuan jian zhu ye shi you ye zhu fang he qi ta hang ye. ta men ren wei te lang pu de cai zheng he shui shou gai ge de ying xiang zheng zai jian ruo. te lang pu sheng cheng, zai zeng jia ji chu she shi tou zi jian shao suo you bu men de jian guan yi ji kai fang shi you chu kou fang mian jin zhan huan man., shi jie ge di de qi ta qi ye jia bi mei guo qi ye jia geng bei guan, ta men dan xin te lang pu de zheng ce. guan zhu mao yi zhan zheng he hui lv bo dong, guan zhu chuan tong guo ji zhi xu de bian hua he xin guo ji zhi xu de bu que ding xing. shi jie ge di de shang ren dou dan xin te lang pu mao yi zhan hui ying xiang he gai bian quan qiu chan ye lian de ge ju, yin ci ta men bu gan jin xing ren he zhong qi tou zi huo geng duo. 2018 nian, quan qiu FDI cong 2017 nian de 147 wan yi mei yuan xia jiang dao 1. 2 wan yi mei yuan, jiang fu da 18, zhe yi dian xian er yi jian. chu yu tong yang de yuan yin, qi ye jia men shuo ta men dui 2019 nian de tou zi geng jia jin shen., quan qiu jing ji shuai tui yi jing yin qi le jin rong shi chang can yu zhe de guan zhu he kun huo. Bridge Water Fund de chuang shi ren lei da li ao Ray Dalio yu ce, sui zhe mei guo he ou zhou jing ji ji xu fang huan, wei lai de huo bi zheng ce jiang bu de bu fang song. mu qian, zhong yang yin hang de zheng ce kong jian you xian, min cui zhu yi de xing qi, zheng zhi he she hui chong tu, zhong yang yin hang zai zhe zhong qing kuang xia hen nan ying dui ling yi chang jing ji shuai tui. ta ren wei, mei lian chu de jia xi zheng ce ke neng hui cong ti gao li lv zhuan bian wei jiang di li lv, zhe zai da wo si yin fa le qian bo lang chao. zhe yang, quan qiu jin rong shi chang reng chu yu di li lv di tong zhang liu dong xing guang de zhuang tai, jin rong shi chang jiang ji xu bo dong, quan qiu tou zi zhe jiang mian lin chong gu de tiao zhan., zi jin rong wei ji yi lai de shi nian li, quan qiu gong si zhai quan zeng jia le yue 29 wan yi mei yuan. xin xing jing ji ti de gong si zhai quan zeng zhang lv yuan gao yu fa da jing ji ti, zhe shi quan qiu jin rong de qian zai feng xian. mei lin zheng quan Merrill Lynch Securities dong shi zong jing li fang kai lun Karen Fang he zhi li cai zheng bu zhang ba si cun Felipe Larran Bascun ren wei, ru guo mei lian chu bu ti gao li lv, jiu you tiao zheng de yu di. zai di li lv huan jing xia, gang gan lv bu shi hen gao. yu zhai wu pao mo bu tong, ta men ren wei shi chang ke yi rong ren zan shi de zi chan he zhai wu cuo pei yi ji jiu zheng cuo pei, yin ci zhai wu pao mo po lie de ji duan qing kuang bu tai ke neng fa sheng. guo ji huo bi ji jin zu zhi IMF fu zong cai da wei A. li pu dun David A. Lipton qiang diao, bi xu you yi tiao di xian, zhong dian guan zhu fu zhai qi ye de ying li neng li li lv shang sheng he mei yuan bo dong dui hong guan jing ji de ying xiang kao lv ru he fang fan ke neng chu xian de zhai wu feng xian yi ji cai zheng he huo bi zheng ce ying dui shuai tui de kong jian you duo da. xi an. wo guan cha dao, 2019 nian, shi chang xu yao guan zhu li lv hui lv jing ji zeng zhang xia jiang zhong mei mao yi mo ca yi ji di yuan zheng zhi bu que ding xing de ying xiang., te lang pu zheng ce shi 2019 nian de zhu yao feng xian dian., da wo si ji hu tong yi di yuan zheng zhi bu que ding xing, you qi shi te lang pu zheng ce bu que ding xing, shi 2019 nian de zhu yao feng xian. shi jie jing ji lun tan quan qiu feng xian he di yuan zheng zhi yi cheng fu ze ren an gu si ke lin si bao gao cheng, 2019 nian feng xian yu qi wen juan diao cha de san ge te dian zhi yi shi di yuan zheng zhi wen ti lian xu san nian cheng wei guan zhu jiao dian. quan qiu di yuan zheng zhi feng xian bu duan shang sheng, min cui zhu yi chi xu fa jiao, fa da guo jia de zheng fu pu bian bu huo yue huo duan qi xing wei, qi ye jia pu bian bao yuan shang ye huan jing e hua., te lang pu jing ji zheng ce de bu que ding xing zai yu shui shou gai ge de cai zheng ci ji yi jing jie shu, xin zheng ce hai bu ming que. dui di er ge cai zheng chi zi de ya li yi jing xian xian, mei guo zai 2019 nian de cai zheng chi zi wei 1 wan yi mei yuan, chi xu de mao yi chi zi yue wei 3. shuang chong chi zi dui mei yuan li lv de ying xiang reng you dai guan cha, dan zai 2019 nian 10 yue, te lang pu mian lin guo hui pi zhun ti gao mei guo zhai wu shang xian de wen ti, wo ting shuo dai biao men dan xin zhe ke neng shi jin nian shi jie mian lin de yi ge zhu yao feng xian., zai zheng zhi shang, te lang pu shi na ge shi qi suo you zong tong zhong zui di de yi wei, ta xian ru le ge zhong sui shi ke neng jia ju de mao dun zhi zhong. te lang pu yu guo hui zhi jian de mao dun zheng zai zhu bu zhan kai he ji hua. min zhu dang yi jing zhan ju le zhong yi yuan de duo shu xi wei, guo hui jiang jia qiang dui te lang pu de zhi heng. dai biao men te bie guan zhu mei guo guo nei zheng zhi de e hua, bao kuo gong he dang he min zhu dang zhi jian mao dun de jia ju te lang pu de shen ru diao cha shou ru fen pei de chi xu e hua yi ji xin de shui shou zheng ce. dai biao men hai dan xin mei guo guo nei zheng zhi e hua de guo ji ying xiang. te lang pu dui chao xian mo xi ge yi lang zhong guo zhi dao tiao yue he shi mao zu zhi de zheng ce shi ke bian de., te lang pu de si wei luo ji shi qi ye guan li he qi ye guan li. ta de xing dong feng ge shi gao diao de wei xie kong he fan pan, bu an guan li da pai, tiao zhan dui shou de di xian. shi shi shang, ta xin li zhi dao ta de mu di shi ming que de, ta de gong zuo zuo feng shi xun su he bao li de. dang dui shou ren wei ta hui tuo xie shi, ta de mu biao jiu shi xian le. yin wei ta duo qu le mei guo de ba quan bing cai qu le bao li xing dong, suo yi jing chang zou xiao. zheng fu de guan bi chong fen ti xian le te lang pu de jian qiang zuo feng he zi wo zhong xin jing shen. wo de guan cha shi, zhe shi yi ge fei chang bu yu kuai de bu que ding xing zai shang jie., si shi jie reng qi dai duo bian zhu yi jie jue zheng duan., zhong mei zhi jian de mao yi mo ca zhan ju le hui yi de suo you yi ti. dai biao men pu bian xi wang zhong mei neng zai 3 yue da cheng mao yi xie ding, dan shang wu dai biao men dan xin zhong mei ke neng nan yi zai 3 yue chu da cheng xie yi, huo da cheng duan qi xie yi, chang qi mo ca reng zai ji xu., mei guo tiao qi zhong mei mao yi mo ca, gai bian le quan qiu mao yi huan jing, yin fa le quan qiu mao yi ti zhi gai ge yu fa zhan de tao lun. ou meng mao yi zhuan yuan CeciliaMalmstrm ren wei, quan qiu mao yi ti xi you liang zhong qu shi. xiao ji fang mian, cun zai mao yi bao hu he mao yi zheng duan deng wei xie, yi xie guo jia hu shi le quan qiu mao yi gui ze. zai ji ji fang mian, xu duo guo jia ren wei, quan qiu mao yi you xu duo hao chu, xu duo shuang bian mao yi xie ding yi jing da cheng. de yi zhi yin hang Deutsche Bank shou xi zhi xing guan ke li si ting xi lin Christian Selling zhi chu, quan qiu mao yi xing shi de zui da ying xiang shi dong yao ren men de xin xin. duo bian huo shuang bian mao yi xie ding de di jie dui yu chong jian shi chang xin xin zhi guan zhong yao. shi jie mao yi zu zhi WTO zong gan shi luo bo te a ze fu duo ren wei, ting zhi de duo bian ti xi shi bu ke xing de, bi xu bu duan gai jin he fa zhan yi shi ying bu duan bian hua de shi jie. ta zhi chu, gai bian xian zhuang de fang fa bu shi qi dao, er shi can yu jie jue fang an de tao lun., shi jie reng ran qi dai duo bian zhu yi jie jue mao yi zheng duan. zai wo can jia de yi ge quan qiu mao yi fen lun tan kai shi shi, 100 de guan zhong tou piao ren wei duo bian zhu yi reng ran shi yi zhong ke xing de quan qiu mao yi fang shi 43 de guan zhong ren wei quan qiu mao yi de qu shi shi jia qiang duo bian he shuang bian he zuo 26 de guan zhong ren wei he zuo hui jian shao 21 de guan zhong ren wei he zuo hui jian shao. zhi you shuang bian he zuo cai neng de dao jia qiang, qi yu 10 de ren ren wei he zuo hui de dao jia qiang. yue jian jiang shi yi ge ling he you xi., wu ying guo tui chu ou zhou shi zhu yao feng xian dian, dai biao men pu bian dui ying guo tui chu ou zhou chi bei guan tai du. li xing zhu yi zhe xi wang ying guo he ou zhou ji xu tan pan, zhao dao tuo xie de yu di, dan shi ji shang, ying guo yi hui he ou zhou yi hui dou biao ming, mei you tuo xie de yu di. zhi sheng xia yi ge zheng zhi jue ding, ling yi ge gong min tou piao huo da xuan. zai guo qu de liang nian li, da wo si de zong ti" qi fen qi fen" shi ying guo he ou zhou cheng gong da cheng de tuo li ou zhou de tan pan xie yi. jin nian feng xiang bian hua hen da. ren men pu bian ren wei, wu lun shi chong xin gong tou hai shi da xuan, huo shi" ying zhong duan"" ruan zhong duan" huo" bu zhong duan". jin tian, ying guo she hui yi jing fen lie, bing jiang dao zhi she hui jing ji zheng zhi he wai jiao de fen lie. jin yi bu de bu wen ding ye jiang yin fa lun dun jin rong shi chang he ou zhou de dong dang. ying guo tui chu ou zhou shi 2019 nian ling yi ge zhong yao de quan qiu feng xian he chu fa dian., ying guo li kai ou zhou ye dui ou meng chan sheng le ju da ying xiang. jian yu mu qian ying guo yu ou zhou de fen li ou zhou de dong xi fen jie xian nan bei fen jie xian deng wen ti, ou meng mian lin de geng da tiao zhan shi ru he jie ding he wei hu ou meng de shen fen. dan hen ming xian, duo yuan hua de ou meng guo jia you zi ji de biao zhun. zai tao lun" xin ou zhou dong tai" shi, he lan zong li ma ke lu te Mark Rutte ti chu, yao bao chi nian qing ren zuo wei ou zhou ren de shen fen, jiu xu yao fan rong gong tong he ji ti de an quan he jia zhi. ta ren wei, bao chi cheng yuan guo zhi jian de gong ping fei chang zhong yao, ou zhou guo jia ying fen dan nan min wen ti, yi huan jie dong xi fang de fen qi, ou zhou wei yuan hui ying xian zhi yi da li he fa guo de yu suan, yi huan jie nan bei fen qi. ci wai, ta hai zhi chu, ou zhou xu yao yi ge tong yi de fu wu he dian zi shang wu nei bu shi chang., ai er lan zong li wa la de ka er Leo Varadkar he ou zhou mao yi wei yuan hui European Trade Commission cheng yuan sai xi li ya ma er mu si te mu Cecilia Malmstrm ren wei, tuan jie shi bi yao de, fu za de quan qiu wen ti xu yao ou zhou gong tong jie jue. bo lan zong li mo la wei ji ti yi cheng ren ou zhou de duo yuan zhu yi, bing fu yu gong zhong quan li. ai er lan zong li wa la de ka er jian yi, ou meng de zheng zhi ying xiang li ying gai jin yi bu kuo da, yi bian zai nei bu he wai bu huo de dui ou meng de xin ren. bo lan zong li mo la wei ji ren wei, ou meng ying gai xue hui qing ting ren min de yi jian, tong shi bao chi cheng yuan guo zhi jian de gong ping jing zheng. he lan zong li ma ke lu te MarkRutte ji xu qiang diao cheng nuo bing jian chi zhi xing zhei xie gui ze. guan yu ru he bi mian yu chu li nan min wen ti lei si de bu tuan jie, bo lan zong li ma tu si mo la wei ji Mateusz Morawiecki ren wei, shui shou ying gai geng gong ping, li ru xiao chu bi shui gang, ou meng ying gai que bao cheng yuan guo zun shou xiang tong de biao zhun. sang tan de yin hang dong shi hui zhi xing zhu xi an na bo ding Ana Botin ti yi, an zhao shi yong zhu yi, jia qiang ji gou de zuo yong, jia kuai fu wu ye he yin hang ye lian meng de zheng he, que bao lei si jin rong ji gou de shui shou gong ping., wo qing chu di gan jue dao ying guo zai tuo li ou zhou fang mian mian lin zhe kun nan. zai ou meng tuo li ou zhou de ying xiang xia, ou meng de ren tong he qian jing hai you yi duan jiao chang de lu yao zou., 6. quan qiu hua shi dai 4. ying gai geng jia bao rong, zai quan qiu hua 4. shi dai, duo bian he zuo reng ran shi jie jue quan qiu hua wen ti de ke xing tu jing. zai" su zao quan qiu hua 4. 0" fen lun tan shang, yu hui zhe de tao lun ji zhong zai" ru he tuan jie shi jie li liang, jian she geng ju bao rong xing he ke chi xu fa zhan de quan qiu jian zhu" wen ti shang. tiao zhan reng ran hen duo., guo ji huo bi ji jin zu zhi shou xi jing ji xue jia ji ta ge pi na te cong mao yi shi heng de jiao du tan tao le quan qiu hua de bian hua te zheng. ta qiang diao quan qiu hua dai lai le xu duo hao chu. cong guo ji mao yi de jiao du kan, quan qiu hua ti gao le ren men de sheng huo shui ping he sheng chan xiao lv deng, dan quan qiu hua shi yi ba shuang ren jian. ji shi wo men chuang zao le zui wan shan de zhi du he zhi xu, ye you ren hui shi bai, suo yi guo nei de bu chong zheng ce you wei zhong yao., mei guo wei ruan gong si Microsoft Corporation shou xi zhi xing guan na de la Satya Nadella zhi chu, quan qiu hua zheng mian lin zhe jing ji zeng zhang ting zhi he nan yi shi xian gong ping fen pei de shuang chong tiao zhan. ru he gou jian xia yi ge quan qiu hua jie gou, shi xian geng hao de gong ping zeng zhang yuan jing? he li li yong quan qiu hua dai lai de ji shu zeng zhang zi yuan chuang xin deng fa zhan ji yu, gai bian si wei fang shi, cu jin quan qiu hua ben tu hua, man zu ge guo de shi ji fa zhan xu yao. sui zhe xin ji shu de fa zhan, quan qiu hua zheng zai shen hua. wo men xu yao geng jia guan zhu shu zi an quan wang luo an quan he wei lai gong zuo ji neng de wei zhi tiao zhan., ri ben cheng shi ke chi xu fa zhan gong si RDND de lian he chuang shi ren jian chuan bo zong jian Akira Sakano zhi chu, wei le ying dui" quan qiu hua 4. 0" dai lai de nan min an zhi liang shi wen ti min zhu hua he ren kou lao ling hua deng zhu duo tiao zhan, you bi yao rang shi jie ge di de xiang guan fang can yu jin lai. bao chi she hui he guo jia ning ju li zai bang shou, tong guo xie zuo cu jin quan qiu hua shi xian gong tong mu biao. jin ru xia yi ge gong ping zeng zhang shui ping., biao pu ji tuan zong cai dao ge la si bi de sen zhi chu, jia zhi lian de zhong yao ying xiang zhi yi shi cu jin ke xue ji shu de fa zhan, shi di fang zhong xiao qi ye you ji hui can yu quan qiu mao yi, cheng wei jia zhi lian de yi bu fen. sui zhe jia zhi lian de da fa zhan, ban sui zhe ji shu de kuai su fa zhan bao zhuang yun shu biao zhun hua deng. wei lai gong ying lian de fa zhan jiang zhu bu cheng wei mo kuai hua, zai 3D da yin he ren gong zhi neng ji shu de tui dong xia, jiang geng jia quan qiu hua huo ben di hua. yin ci, di yuan jing ji bao kuo shui lv zheng fu guan xi deng zhu jian cheng wei ying xiang di yuan jing ji fa zhan de zhong yao yin su zhi yi. ji chu she shi shi gong ying lian sheng ji de ji chu, ji chu she shi she bei shi dang qian zhi yue quan qiu fa zhan su du de yuan yin zhi yi., yin du SCA ji tuan dong shi Bharavi Jani ren wei, fu hua qi he jia su qi deng ji gou li yong zi ben shi xiao xing ke ji gong si zai quan qiu ge ming zhong fa hui zhong yao zuo yong, cu jin jia zhi lian de fa zhan. jia zhi lian de xing shi zhu jian duo yang hua, jia zhi zhong dian bu zai gu ding. liu dong xing qu jue yu gong si de tou zi fang xiang, bing jiang zai guo ji mao yi zhong ji xu bian hua he zhuan yi. Jani zhu yao guan zhu de shi ru he ti gao ren men de xue xi ji neng de xiao lv, yi ji jia zhi lian shi fou wan quan yi lai yu ji shu shou duan., de guo zong li mo ke er de jiang hua zhi chu, quan qiu hua mian lin zhe xu duo tiao zhan he feng xian. shi nian qian, jin rong wei ji de fu mian ying xiang yi ran cun zai. xian you guo ji jin rong ti xi de bu wen ding he guo ji bao hu zhu yi de xing qi, shi ren men dui jing ji zeng zhang de xin xin xia jiang. wei le xiao chu pin kun, wei chi shi jie jing ji fa zhan, guo ji zu zhi he guo ji ti xi xu yao zheng shi wen ti, jia kuai gai ge bu fa. mian dui xin xing jing ji ti ri yi zeng zhang de he zuo xu qiu, ge guo bu ying ju xian yu ben guo li yi, er ying qiu tong cun yi, chuang zao shuang ying ju mian. zai ci ji chu shang, mo ke er zong li jin yi bu qiang diao duo bian zhu yi de bi yao xing, bing qiang diao shi jie ge guo bi xu bing qi jiu de si wei fang shi, yi cu jin quan qiu hua de he li kuang jia., lan de gong si de gao ji zheng zhi xue zhe mai ke er J ma zha er zong jie le guo ji zhi xu fa zhan de san ge jie duan, gei wo liu xia le shen ke de yin xiang. cong guo ji zhi xu he quan qiu hua de li shi lai kan, wo men xian zai chu yu yi ge xin de zhi xu zhi zhong. guo ji zhi xu neng fou ji xu fa zhan, qu jue yu wo men shi fou you xin de ji ben si xiang ji shu jin bu huo geng ming zhi de zheng ce. bu gou., jin guan quan qiu hua he fan quan qiu hua de zheng lun bu duan, yu hui zhe ren wei quan qiu hua ti gao le ren men de sheng huo shui ping he sheng chan xiao lv, dan you xie ren bu ke bi mian di hui shou dao quan qiu hua de ying xiang. yin ci, ying zhi ding shi dang de guo nei bu chong he zhi chi zheng ce. jian yi ge fang tong guo he zuo shi xian gong tong mu biao. ge guo bu ying ju xian yu zi shen li yi, er ying qiu tong cun yi, chuang zao shuang ying ju mian. duo bian zhu yi zai zhe ge guo cheng zhong shi bi bu ke shao de. tui dong quan qiu hua de he li kuang jia yao qiu shi jie ge guo bing qi jiu de si wei fang shi. quan qiu hua ke yi qu de shuang ying de jie guo, dan duo bian ti xi bi xu bu duan wan shan he fa zhan, yi shi ying bu duan bian hua de shi jie., shi jie jing ji lun tan chuang shi ren jian zhi xing zhu xi ke lao si shi wa bu ti chu le yi ge zhong yao de guan dian. zai huan ying ci zhong, ta zhi chu le quan qiu hua yu quan qiu hua de qu bie. quan qiu hua yi jing cheng wei xian shi, bing jiang ji xu xiang qian fa zhan. ru jin, di qiu mei you bian jie, mei ge ren dou shi di qiu cun de yi bu fen, suo you ren dou shi xiang hu lian xi de, zhe zhong lian xi jiang ji xu zeng jia. quan qiu hua shi yi ge zhe xue gai nian. shi jie jing ji lun tan bu zhi chi mei you ren he xian zhi de quan qiu hua. quan qiu hua 4. ying gai geng jia yi ren wei ben. tong shi, ta qiang diao quan qiu hua 4. ying gai geng ju bao rong xing he ke chi xu xing., ke chi xu fa zhan yu qi ye she hui ze ren, yi ren wei ben de ke chi xu fa zhan reng ran shi ren men guan zhu de jiao dian. zai quan qiu hua he fan quan qiu hua de dui kang zhong, lian he guo san nian qian zhi ding de quan qiu ke chi xu fa zhan zhan lue mu biao si hu yi bei yi wang. zai da wo si de tao lun zhong, fei zhou he fa zhan zhong guo jia zai ci qiang diao ru he shi xian ke chi xu fa zhan mu biao, cong wen jian dao zhi xing. ju gu ji, shi xian ke chi xu fa zhan zhan lue mu biao di zi jin que kou yue wei mei nian 2. 5 wan yi mei yuan. ru he chou ji zi jin? lun tan yu hui zhe tao lun le gong gong ji gou he si ying bu men ru he gong tong nu li shi xian zhe yi mu biao. lu wang da zong tong bao luo ka jia mei fen xiang le lu wang da zai ke chi xu fa zhan fang mian di cheng gong jing yan, qiang diao le gong si bu men gong tong nu li guo nei shui shou zheng shou he tong guo ke chi xu fa zhan mu biao di zhong yao xing. lu wang da de zeng zhang lv duo nian lai yi zhi bao chi zai 78. guo ji huo bi ji jin zu zhi zhu xi la jia de dui wei lai fa zhan de yu ce zheng shi le zeng jia guo nei zi yuan diao dong de bi yao xing, zui zhong yao de shi you xiao zhi chu. tong shi, guo nei zi yuan diao dong bu neng man zu shi xian ke chi xu fa zhan mu biao suo xu de zi jin shu e. si ying bu men de shang ye bi xu shi jie jue fang an de yi bu fen. di shou ru guo jia xu yao tong guo ke chi xu fa zhan mu biao bing jiang qi zhuan hua wei xing dong, er bu shi jiang zi jin yong yu xin de zhan lue ji hua., zhi li yu she hui ze ren he qi ye li yi de One RockCreek he TPG Growth de chuang shi ren he gao guan biao shi, si ying bu men you ju da de neng li cu jin fa zhan cheng gong, bing you ming que de ke chi xu fa zhan mu biao, dan hen nan zhuan hua wei zhen zheng de tou zi. tiao zhan zai yu zhao dao neng gou zhen zheng xie tiao gong si huo ban guan xi fa zhan de jie jue fang an, yi ji ru he heng liang he zhao dao liang hao de tou zi. shang sheng ji jin biao shi, mei you da gui mo de gong si he zuo., zai ke chi xu fa zhan de kuang jia xia, guo nei sheng chan zong zhi bu zu yi heng liang yi ge guo jia de jin bu. wei le geng hao di heng liang jing ji he she hui jin bu, hai ying kao lv ren li zi ben fu zhi chuang xin deng zhi biao. ma sheng li gong xue yuan si long shang xue yuan Sloan Business School shu zi jing ji xiang mu zhu guan ai li ke bu lin yue fu sen Erik Brynjofsson zhi chu, GDP he fu li shi liang ge bu tong de gai nian. guo nei sheng chan zong zhi ke yi heng liang sheng chan li he qi ta zhi biao, dan bu neng heng liang yi qie. ta ren wei wo men ying gai cai yong geng hao de ce liang fang fa. zai 21 shi ji, wo men xu yao yi li yi wei ji chu de zhi biao, er bu shi sheng chan xing zhi biao. lun dun da xue xue yuan chuang xin yu gong gong yan jiu suo de chuang shi ren ma li an na ma zu ka tuo zhi chu le ju da GDP shu zi bei hou de wei xian. ying guo de jing ji zeng zhang shi you xiao fei qu dong de, er xiao fei shi you zhai wu qu dong de, zhe jiang gou cheng jing ji wei ji de feng xian. ta ren wei GDP zhi ji suan jia ge, er hu lue le she hui jia zhi. xin xi lan zong li ya xin da a deng JacindaArdern ye tong yi kuo da GDP ji liang. yi zui jin de guo ji mao yi zheng duan he ying guo tuo li ou zhou wei li, ta zhi chu, zheng ce bing bu neng zai zheng zhi ceng mian ti gong duan qi jie jue fang an, er zhi guan zhu guo jia jing ji ceng mian yu ren min tuo jie, ren min fu zhi bi xu cheng wei zheng ce de he xin., a la bo lian he qiu zhang guo xing fu he fu li bu bu zhang ao hu ni bin te ha er fan lu mi Ohuny Bint Khalfan alRoumi ju le yi ge li zi, zhi chu wei sheng bao jian shu ju hu shi le ren lei jing yan, zheng ce zhi ding xu yao dui cheng ben xiao yi he xiao yi jin xing quan mian fen xi. ba li jing ji he zuo yu fa zhan zu zhi Paris Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development mi shu zhang gu la Angel Gurra zhi chu, yi fang mian, dang GDP da dao yi ding shui ping shi, ren men kai shi zhui qiu geng gao de sheng huo zhi liang. ling yi fang mian, yi xie ren xun qiu she hui jin bu, yi jie jue zhu ru yi min pin fu cha ju he nan min deng she hui bu ping deng wen ti. dui yu jue ce zhe lai shuo, xu yao yi tao ke bi jiao de zhi biao, tong guo zhei xie zhi biao ke yi zhao dao geng hao de zheng ce cuo shi., hui yi hai tao lun le dui cui ruo jing ji ti de guan qie, bing fen xiang le guo jia he ji tuan yuan zhu gong zuo de cheng guo. guo ji jiu yuan wei yuan hui zhu xi da wei mi li ban de dui mu qian de xing shi biao shi guan qie. zai jie xia lai de ji nian li, bu que ding de huan jing yi jing yin qi le ren men dui cui ruo guo jia chang qi tou zi de huai yi. qi zhong, yi ge que fa zheng zhi zhi du de guo jia de quan li ke neng hui zhu jian rang wei gei guo jia zheng zhi he zong jiao, zhe zui zhong jiang dao zhi yi ge bi leng zhan he di er ci shi jie da zhan geng cui ruo he cui ruo de guo ji zheng zhi zhi du. guo ji hong shi zi hui zhu xi bi de mo lei er yu da wei da cheng gong shi, bing yu ta fen xiang le hong shi zi hui zai zhi chi cui ruo di qu fa zhan fang mian mian lin de wen ti: 1 zui chu yong yu chang qi xiang mu di zi jin jing chang yong yu duan qi mu di 2 ren men de xu yao yu yuan zhu neng li zhi jian de cha ju zhu jian jia da. 3 gong zhong dui" cui ruo xing" de ding yi cun zai wu jie, zhei xie guo jia he di qu wang wang neng zi jiu. bang zhu zhi shi que fa bi yao de zhi chi. zai wei lai, bi de jiang zhong dian guan zhu ru he geng hao di zheng he ge ren zi yuan, yi ji ru he jie he gong ju he ji neng lai ti gao yuan zhu de you xiao xing., yi la ke lv se jian zhu zi xun gong si Iraqi Green Building Consulting Corporation chuang shi ren ba xi ma a bo du lei la he man basima Abdullahman ren wei, quan qiu fan wei nei xu yao xiao chu duan shi xian xiang, bing zai jia qiang ren min fu quan he she hui ping deng cu jin gong ping de tong shi fa zhan he fu yu ren men geng duo de she hui ji hui de ji chu shang kai zhan gong zuo. ken ni ya ka ku ma nan min ying qu yu zhu xi mu han mo de ha sang mu han mo de hu yu shi jie ren min dui fei zhou nan min ji yu geng duo de li jie he guan zhu, bing ti gong geng duo de jiao yu he jiu ye ji hui, yi shi xian jiao ren diao yu., jin guan quan qiu jing ji jin rong he di yuan zheng zhi mian lin tiao zhan, dan ben ci hui yi ren wei qi hou bian hua shi shi jie mian lin de zui zhong yao zui jin po he zui yan zhong de tiao zhan. shi jie jing ji lun tan quan qiu feng xian he di yuan zheng zhi yi cheng fu ze ren an gu si ke lin si bao gao cheng, 2019 nian feng xian yu qi wen juan diao cha de yi ge te dian shi feng xian guan zhu cong jing ji wen ti zhuan xiang huan jing wen ti., ben wen lai zi wei xin gong zhong hao: yuan zi zhi ku. zuo zhe shi qing hua da xue guo jia jin rong xue yuan yuan chang guo ji huo bi ji jin zu zhi qian fu zhu xi yuan zi neng zhi ku xue shu cheng yuan zhu min.

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